Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
